The Federal Open Market Committee held rates steady at its March meeting but raised the probability of cuts in the back half of 2026. Markets are now pricing in two 25 bps cuts before December, with the first likely in July or September.
For commercial real estate, lower rates would:
- Compress cap rates further — supporting valuations
- Open refinance windows for owners who locked in 7%+ debt in 2023–2024
- Increase transaction velocity as buyers' financing math improves
The exact path depends on inflation data over the next two quarters.